$8/gallon?

The national average for gas prices hit $4.05/gallon in the U.S. today--with no end in sight to rising gas and oil prices. Congress has called for an investigation into market manipulation. Americans drove 5% less this Memorial Day than last year--demand is down, supply is up. The law of supply and demand would seem to indicate that prices should be coming down, albeit moderately. The one thing that continues to drive up prices is a fear of conflict in the Middle East.

Today, President Bush is making his last European tour. On the trip, he urged German Chancellor Angela Merkel to cut all business ties with Iran. All of this is fueling fears about Middle East tensions.

Even more dramatically, news was released last week that Congress and the Pentagon were considering allowing Israel to purchase new U.S. F-22 fighter jets. The current policy is not to export these planes to anyone---not even our closest allies (Japan was denied these new planes). The Israeli PM indicated that Israel would consider attacking Iran if it thought that Tehran continued to pursue nuclear weapons.

Clearly, Iran poses a serious threat to Israel, and would be an even greater threat with nuclear weapons, so the Israeli position is somewhat understandable.

What does all of this have to do with the F-22 and gas prices? The F-22 is our most advanced fighter--it is actually a stealth fighter and is very difficult to detect using conventional radar. When President Bush met with Ehud Olmert (Israeli PM) last week, it was rumored that Olmert specifically asked the President for the F-22. With the F-22, Israel could launch an assault on Iran much more easily, especially with the stealth technology. As time goes by, Iran continues to enhance their defenses to the point where some of Israel's other fighters might be in danger should an assault be launched. The F-22 would be the perfect option for a quick, surgical attack on Iran.

All of this has fuelled speculation in some circles that Israel may intend to attack Iran if no progress is made on the nuclear weapons front sooner rather than later. Keep in mind that this is all rumor and pure speculation---but it seems that it is speculation and rumor that has been the driving force behind the upward trend in oil prices for the last couple of weeks. While Israel may be limited in its options in this regard, one thing is for sure: it spells higher gas prices for everyone.

An attack on Iran could lead to widespread tension in the Middle East--maybe even war. It is time to prepare for higher gas prices, and finally wean ourselves off of the oil that we are so dependent on.